![]() ![]() “Today is a wakeup call for Washington Democrats,” said House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., the day after Youngkin’s win. In short, Republicans seemed bullish on their chances of taking back both chambers of Congress on Nov. Biden’s approval ratings were falling amid a messy withdrawal from Afghanistan and a debate in Congress over two major pieces of his domestic agenda: A $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and a much larger social spending measure that was trimmed down from $3.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, narrowly eked out a victory against Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a state Biden won by 16 points over Donald Trump.īoth of those off-year races - which showed Democrats receding and Republicans soaring - were widely seen as a bellwether for what was to come for Democrats in the next year’s midterm elections.Īfter all, the president’s party usually always loses seats in the following midterms since 1946, the president’s party has improved its margin in the House of Representatives just once. In November of last year, Republican Glenn Youngkin shocked the political world by winning the Virginia governor’s race, flipping a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election by more than 10 points. How did we get here, and what might we expect in November? Let's take a look:Ģ021's off-year elections foretold signs of a 'red wave' "And then since June, we've seen this this turnaround in terms of registration, in terms of polling, in terms of fundraising.” "Things were looking really, really bad for the Democrats," he added. Right now, it looks like they might lose 10 to 15." ![]() But four months ago, it looked like they might lose 40 seats. "I would be extremely shocked if they didn't lose seats. "I think the president's party is going to lose seats in the House," said David Barker, Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. The president’s party typically loses an average of 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats in these off-year elections, according to historical trends.īut there’s reason to think the wreckage won’t be all that bad for Democrats this Election Day, experts say – thanks to a combination of falling gas prices and easing of inflation, a blistering pace of recent legislative victories for President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats, and the Supreme Court's ruling that eliminated the constitutional right to an abortion over the summer. Midterm elections usually leave the White House a gloomy place.
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